When will Japan lift the travel ban and open its doors to international travelers? Will the borders open as usual in the fall of 2022? These are questions among those who are planning trips to Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, etc. We monitor foreign visitor warnings, news and more to get answers.
Japan has relaxed border control measures several times in the past few months, and is expected to do so again in September 2022 by canceling some pre-arrival tests, raising the daily entry cap, and allowing non-existent tourists (with a huge asterisk). More on the latest numbers and developments in the "September 1, 2022 Update" section below - skip to that if you've already read this post.
If you're simply looking for an official answer on when Japan will reopen to individual self-guided tourists (not tour groups), we still don't have that exact date. If you would like to be notified as soon as an announcement is made by the Government of Japan, sign up for our free email newsletter. This post contains the latest news, with commentary on the variables that will affect the reopening of Japan's borders for leisure travel, and when we expect the country to move to that stage of its reopening plan...
We typically spend two months in Japan each year, or we did, before lockdown. We've canceled three return trips since then in the past two years, the most recent being in December. For now, our next flight is scheduled for fall 2022 - with no guarantees we won't cancel again.
For these two years or more, we have been watching the situation in Japan closely, watching several hours of NHK every day and reading several Japanese news sources. All this in the hope of getting some clarity as to when the country will fully reopen and Japan will start letting international tourists in again. The following is based on this research and focus on the situation on the ground in Japan.
Japan now allows foreign nationals to enter Japan for purposes other than tourism as long as they have a sponsor in the country. This prioritizes business travelers on short stays, students in study abroad programs, participants in technical training, and those who will provide a "public good" for Japan. This excludes individual tourists.
However, the monitored group tours are now able to enter Japan as of last month. The Japanese Tourism Ministry has issued guidelines for tourists and travel agencies that will be organizing group tours as part of the country's very limited tourism resumption. You can read about it in the rules for supervised tour groups in Japan. There is no end date for these tours, which are a de facto extension of the demonstration tours for travel agents.
In short, it is not possible to visit Japan for self-guided tourism at the moment, nor will it be at least in the next month. This is the vast majority of foreign visitors, especially those who read an English-language post on a website with the word "travel" in the name.
With that in mind, let's cover how we got here, why Japan maintains the toughest of the G7 developed nations, and what could cause that to change.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly said Japan will "continue to consider how to take measures by taking into account cases of infection at home and abroad, border control measures taken by other countries, and progress in rolling out vaccine boosters."
Kishida also acknowledged that Japan's border control measures are the strictest among the G7 countries, and expressed his desire/need to bring Japan into line with its peers. “This is the first step in our gradual easing of [border] restrictions,” Kishida said.
As for why Japan's borders are still closed more than a year after most democracies reopen, this can largely be explained by the country's fears of outsiders. For better or worse, Japan is a secluded and culturally conservative country - a characteristic that visitors often appreciate. Not so much in the last couple of years, as this has been reflected in policy making. Japan has denigrated and scapegoated foreigners, and has had a very aggressive approach to its borders.
This is why border closures are still reasonably popular among the Japanese public (although those numbers are dwindling). However, another common thing is economic growth. Japan has been left behind economically, seeing a slower recovery than the US and its other peers reopening more aggressively. The general public often holds internally incompatible beliefs or desires, which cannot be reconciled in public policy making.
The border closures have paid off, a signal to the public that the government is "doing something" about a virus it cannot control, while in reality not affecting the lives of its citizens. However, as more advanced economies and democracies abandon such measures, Japan will need to do so as well or risk losing its soft power.
Many Japanese policy moves—or lack thereof—have been driven by fear of cultural outsiders, the unknown, and indecision. Arguably, its policies made some sense when trying to buy time while waiting for a vaccine. This is no longer the case and has not been for over a year.
The economic benefits for international tourists are one of the main reasons Japan expects to reopen its borders. Boosting tourism was central to the economic revitalization of the late former Prime Minister Abe, and the two subsequent prime ministers have indicated their intentions to keep these plans going.
However, the number of foreign visitors to Japan fell to 245,900 last year, the lowest level since 1964, as the country imposed stricter border controls. The number is down 94.0 percent from 2020 when there was just two months of normal travel. This is the largest drop ever, according to the Japan Tourism Agency. Compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019, it decreased by 99.2%.
Economists fear a "double" recession in Japan due to prolonged lockdowns and restrictions. Declining tourism in addition to declining exports, increasing consumption tax, declining consumer spending, a weak yen, and a growing national debt. Japan's economy is in serious trouble and inbound tourism was once a bright spot.
In other words, reopening to international visitors will be critical to the health of Japan's consumption-driven economy at some point in the not-too-distant future. This becomes increasingly true as the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan continuing its loose monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve, European Central Banks and other central banks raise interest rates. Quite simply, Japan is inflicting pain on itself by staying closed off.
There are also signs that strict travel measures, including border closures, are having a greater impact on the Japanese economy than previously thought. This comes despite Japan's "Go to Travel" campaign supporting domestic travel, which has been introduced at various times over the past two years.
According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, accommodation in hotels and other accommodation facilities hit another record low in Japan last year - breaking the previous record set in 2020. The total number of guests in hotels and hostels reached 315.75 million, down 4.8% from 2020. And 47 % from 2019. (This number includes hotels used as government quarantine facilities, not just leisure stays.)
The ruling coalition of the LDP is aware of these problems and knows that it needs to rebuild the Japanese economy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that his top priority is to formulate new economic measures and implement these goals. The government will also take measures to stimulate and get the economy moving.
Despite the above figures, Japan maintains its goal of attracting 60 million foreign visitors by 2030. In addition, the Japan National Tourism Organization has set 2024 as its target to restore international travel levels for 2019. Both of these statements are reassuring given the operations of The current border closings, and they suggest Japan will lift the travel ban in months, not years.
Against this economic backdrop, let's take a look at the latest changes to Japan's reopening plans.
Let's start with the issues, which are rapidly declining because Japan is now past the peak of the seventh wave of issues led by the highly transmissible BA.5 Omicron variant. Now that the Obon holiday is right in the rearview mirror, we expect those numbers to continue lower for the rest of this month.
Until then, Japan had reported 149,906 cases of the novel coronavirus on September 1, 2022. This is lower compared to 220,847 cases last Thursday. The Tokyo metropolitan government reported 14,451 new cases on the same day, down 8,678 from last Thursday. The daily total in the capital is now down on a weekly basis for 11 days in a row.
Against the backdrop of falling issues, we have more good news. Prime Minister Kishida spoke at a press conference and announced further easing of measures at the border. He spoke of Japan joining the trend of "increasing international exchanges that are gaining momentum in different parts of the world... to make sure that the benefits of a weak yen are felt."
“To make entry of people as smooth as the other Group of Seven countries, we will facilitate our border control procedures by taking into account the situation of infection at home and abroad, the needs of (travelers) and the border measures taken by other countries,” Kishida said.
To this end, Japan will make a variety of changes in an effort to encourage inbound travel, all of which will take effect on September 7, 2022. First, Japan will stop requiring proof of a negative COVID-19 test result from arrivals in the country as long as they have completed three rounds of vaccinations. .
Japan has already abandoned testing on arrival in most circumstances. Other countries that have recently abandoned pre-arrival testing have seen a modest increase in international tourism, as it is an obstacle and a cause of uncertainty for some travelers. However, it alone will not move the needle much.
Second, Japan will also increase the maximum number of arrivals to 50,000 people per day from the current 20,000 per day.
This may have less effect. It's a necessary prerequisite for the further reopening and resumption of more domestic international flights (which many airlines have already set out in September and beyond), but that alone hasn't been an obstacle that discourages most international visitors. While the daily number of arrivals was higher before the lockdown, 50,000 is likely to be the level at which this cap becomes immaterial as China continues to be sidelined.
Finally, the government is also set to open Japan to more foreign tourists by allowing unguided tours, that is, those not accompanied by tour operators, from countries deemed less risky. These will include the United States, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Indonesia and Thailand.
However, there is an enormous asterisk here. This is specifically for "unguided tour groups" or "unaccompanied visitors on package tours" and not individual tourists. The government has yet to issue guidelines or definitions for these terms, but it looks as though visitors will still be required to use a travel agency to book their flights, with plans to monitor the agency and be the responsible or point of contact for dealing with infected visitors. . We have a new function, Unguided Tours of Japan - Rules of the Reopening Phase, which speculates on possibilities and will be updated as soon as said guidelines are issued by the government.
While this is disappointing, it is not somewhat surprising. The last two updates centered around the internal debate in Japan over whether COVID-19 should be stripped of its special status and reduced to the same level as influenza in Japan's infectious disease categories.
This is something that is still being studied, but is likely to happen as the seventh wave recedes. Already, a panel of Japanese health experts including chief coronavirus adviser Shigeru Ohmi has urged the government to downgrade the coronavirus rating in order to ease the burden on hospitals and public health centers. This would also reduce requirements for case reporting and testing of contacts, which is partly responsible for the health system becoming overwhelmed at times.
Besides the stated goals of these medical experts, lowering the level of COVID will have positive economic and social repercussions and largely allow life to return to normal as Japan learns to live with the virus. This move to Category 5 is something that has been suggested before by groups and officials within Japan, but it has never gained momentum.
Several months ago, an influential Japanese business consortium, known as Keidanren, formally requested this in addition to an exit strategy and border policies in line with the G7. The late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suggested such a change of situation several times, dating back to 2020.
This official reduction will modify the way Japan deals with COVID-19, eliminating many of the countermeasures currently being taken. In doing so, it will also put the country on the right path to reopening and economic recovery. Given Japan's approach to dealing with infections and cases, this is almost certainly a necessary prerequisite for a country that welcomes individual tourists as there will be no need for a responsible reception party to monitor travelers and act as a link for infected individuals.
In other words, the "unguided tours" to be offered starting September 7, 2022 could easily pass on to "individual tourists" once the legal COVID-19 downgrade takes place. The mechanisms for this change in legal status are unclear. The State Medical Experts Committee requested that this happen "immediately" several weeks ago and it has not yet happened. At this point, the current wave of issues is expected to subside.
While that's not exactly what we wanted to hear, this news is still incredibly optimistic (albeit belatedly). Once again, this announcement will come at or near the peak of the seventh wave of Japan. We probably don't need to remind you, but waves of the past halted all progress and were massive setbacks for reopening plans. Instead, Japan moving forward while ranking first in the world in new cases is incredibly important.
After the election, Kishida stated that economic growth is vital, and he plans to make this a top priority. In order to achieve these economic goals, the government of Japan will likely need to reduce the level of COVID to encourage productive economic activity and facilitate the public's return to a sense of normalcy.
Interestingly, recent survey data also shows that the public is now far less concerned with COVID than the economy, the Unification Church scandal, Abe's funeral, and other issues. It's entirely possible that Kishida will see this poll and his low approval numbers, as well as navigate through Ubon, and realize that it's time to move on. That there are more downside risks to reopening and encouraging more economic activity.
As we have repeatedly emphasized, the population of Japan has been among the most vigilant in the world regarding COVID-19. Human behavior and feelings do not change overnight, even if it is economically beneficial and objectively safer. Statements by politicians and medical advisors, gradual border easing measures, and other changes can be interpreted as Japan laying the groundwork for the resumption of normal life and the eventual reopening of the country. Now seems to be the time - or very soon.
It's still hard to say when the real reopening of Japan will be and at this point... it's probably a foolish task. With that said, I will present a few scenarios, which I all consider as realistic possibilities.
Let's start with the best case scenario. Although "unguided rounds" are what is likely to be announced as the next step, Japan could downgrade its COVID-19 rating from its own to Category 5 literally any day now. The medical expert's suggestion called for this to happen immediately, and that was about a month ago.
The complete downgrade would basically be to press the reset button to get it back to normal. Crucially, this will eliminate the legal requirements for a responsible reception party for visitors to Japan. In such a scenario, borders could almost immediately return to their pre-closure normal, possibly by late September 2022. Likewise, capping the number of arrivals at 50,000 would be an insignificant factor, with reduced flight paths and a lack of tourists from China along with the time difference Between booking and travel which means that it will not be necessary to set a higher ceiling.
Such rapid change would fly in the face of Japan's slow and detailed decision-making process that involves a lot of "careful consideration" and "situation assessment". If anything has been well proven over the past two years or more, that inaction is Japan's baseline, and anything that happens happens gradually and in phases.
However, we are already starting to see this with Japan taking action amid the seventh wave. A rapid reopening and a return to normalcy is within the realm of possibilities if Kishida is serious about developing the economy and taking advantage of a weak yen. Given that the Japanese public and media have largely moved away from COVID and are now focused on other issues, making more changes likely won't be detrimental to Kishida and the already weak LDP approval ratings.
Previously, our perspective was that this scenario is unlikely. With September 7, 2022 relaxed, it's now within the realm of possibilities - far more likely than the worst case scenario...
Speaking of which, the worst case scenario is that Japan starts with “unguided tours” and then revives its “Go to Travel” campaign in time for the Autumn Colors season, and uses that to support the tourism sector until December 2022. It is possible that the country sees this as sufficient for businesses Tourism to stave off bankruptcy or other financial hardship for a few more months.
If Japan has yet to fully downgrade its COVID-19 rating by then, the canister will likely be reopened down the road. It could mean that individual tourists won't be welcomed back to Japan until sometime in the first half of 2023. Foolishly optimistic, I tend to say "early" in 2023, but it's easy to imagine the worst case that it won't be until spring or summer .
Our view is that a worst-case scenario is now unlikely for one simple reason: Japan eased its border measures in early September 2022 while still ranking first in the world for new cases. This indicates that Japan is finally ready to move forward and sets a precedent for future changes during the waves. Who knows - it may take until early 2023 to completely reduce the legal status of COVID. But whatever winter spell occurs (and one will), it is unlikely to be an obstacle to reopening progress, as it was last year.
Then there is a middle ground, which we see somewhat more likely. This is essentially a development in a best-case scenario, except for more realistic levels of delay to allow for "systematic" decision-making in Japan. In our view, it is only a matter of time before the level of COVID-19 is reduced.
However, Japan's panel of medical experts has put forward a two-stage proposal to lower the COVID-19 rating to Category 5, with the second stage involving a comprehensive review and amendment of existing law to implement more drastic changes to the country's long-term plans around the virus. . Between the receding of the seventh wave and the possible perception that unguided rounds are an important step, there may be no sense of urgency for the second stage of the rating downgrade proposal.
It has already taken Japan more than two months to "confirm" what has been glaringly obvious to outside observers from the start: the highly restricted and monitored group tours have not resulted in an economically viable increase in tourism. It is quite possible that it will take another two months to confirm that "unguided tours" are far from "individual tourists".
Accordingly, it may be a few more months before Japan has the data and willingness to take further measures that would allow individual tourists to enter.
With all this in mind, we remain cautiously optimistic that Japan will lower the legal classification for COVID-19 and allow individual tourists in sooner rather than later. The foundation is being laid for further relaxation, and it is desirable to resume economic activity.
Thus, we see Japan's reopening of some individual tourists sometime in the fall of 2022 as a realistic scenario. As unlikely as it may seem at the moment, Japan will likely welcome international visitors who are not part of the tours (guided or non-existent) sometime before November 2022. Even in the midst of the current seventh wave, it is quite clear that the government is focusing on moving forward. As frustrating as this whole process was, Japan wasn't (completely) stuck in March 2020.
As always, Japan is cautious and conservative, with a slow and detailed decision-making process that often embodies "analytical paralysis". This is a basic card that can further extend any timeline. However, Japan is now joining the rest of the world as people are ready to move forward in life. The next step is for the government to downgrade the COVID-19 rating, which would meaningfully change the way Japan handles its policies and protocol, and would set the country on the path to properly reopening.
We will continue to watch the news and keep you updated if/when there are further developments around reopening Japan and allowing entry to travelers from the US, Canada, Europe and beyond. Again, if you'd like to be notified as soon as more details or a rumor are published, sign up for our free email newsletter for constant updates and alerts:
If you plan to visit Japan, at this point we recommend targeting sometime in late fall 2022 at the earliest. In our view, the koyo (autumn leaf) season is a good bet, from mid-November through December. This is simply the time to visit Japan, and hopefully, the country will be open to individual tourists by then.
Speaking of which, check out Japan's Fall Color Forecast Viewing Guide and Fall Leaf Viewing Guide to begin planning your trip to visit Japan's popular fall foliage cities, including Kyoto, Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Miyajima, Hiroshima, Himeji, and Nara. This also provides tips for avoiding crowds and strategy for visiting the best temples, shrines, and evening illuminations.
If you're planning a trip to Japan, check out our other posts about Japan for ideas on other things to do! We also recommend consulting our Ultimate Guide to Kyoto and The Ultimate Guide to Tokyo for planning.
Are you thinking of visiting Japan later this year, or is international travel out of the question for you anytime soon? How do you watch the news of the guided tours? Do you think these will remain in place for several months, or are they just the stage for changing public opinion? Are you worried that Japan won't reopen until 2023, or do you think late fall 2022 is still realistic?
Do you think the need to adapt and live with the endemic virus will outweigh the fear when it comes to Japan's plans to reopen? Any ideas or tips of your own to add? If you are planning your trip to Japan, what do you think of these itineraries? any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is interesting to us and useful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!